CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Fri 20 Jan 06:00 - Sat 21 Jan 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 19 Jan 19:42 (UTC)
FORECASTER: TUSCHY

Thunderstorms are forecast across Scotland

Thunderstorms are forecast across Netherlands, N-Germany and western Denmark

SYNOPSIS

Most parts of eastern and southeastern Europe will see stable conditions ( convective-wise ) and very to extremely cold temperatures.... Cold airmass now even reaches parts of the eastern Mediterranean...Strong baroclinic zone should develop south of Sicilia, when cold air converges with WAA of upper-level low pressure // placed over eastern Algeria,Tunisia // and a few TSTMS should develop along this zone... Current thinking is that most storms will be elevated, due to strong isentropic lift, when baroclinic zone slowly shifts northward due to strengthening WAA.
Main area of interest will be strong depression, moving over Scotland - North Sea and N-Germany southeastward.

DISCUSSION

...Scotland...
Main reason for highlighting the area will be postfrontal activity, after the passage of an active cold front during the very early morning hours... Models indicate broad area of low-end SBCAPE under core of SE-ward shifting mid-level cold pool... 25-30m/s+ H85 streak will be placed right in this broad area of enhanced convective activity [ Strathallan 25m/s at H9-H85 12-15Z ]... expect only an isolated TSTM to develop...main risk looks like to be an enhanced severe wind gust threat ( 25m/s+ ) with each well developed shower/TSTM...Main risk area will be Scotland where best thermodynamic conditions will be present....Threat should ease during the early evening hours.

...Netherlands, N-Germany and western Denmark...
Active cold front will reach the coastal areas of Netherlands and NW Germany during the afternoon hours... Instability should be nearly zero, but don't want to exlcude and isolated short-lived TSTM with gutsy winds.
Postfrontal airmass looks more promising for TSTM development, when cold mid-level airmass [ H5 -> ~ -35°C ]arrives during the evening hours... Accompanying trough axis should yield enough forcing for isolated TSTM development, mainly along the coastal areas of NW Germany...LL shear up to 15m/s favors a risk for an isolated severe wind gust/ waterspout or tornado report, but instability too marginal for a more significant threat.
Also included western Denmark, because of an augmented waterspout risk, when core of upper-level system crosses the region, but window of best conditions looks like to be only very brief.

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